Global marine biosecurity and ship lay-ups: intensifying effects of trade disruptions.

Recent global trade disruptions, due to blockage of the Suez Canal and cascading effects of COVID-19, have altered the movement patterns of commercial ships and may increase worldwide invasions of marine non-indigenous species. Organisms settle on the hulls and underwater surfaces of vessels and can accumulate rapidly, especially when vessels remain stationary during lay-ups and delays. Once present, organisms can persist on vessels for long-periods (months to years), with the potential to release propagules and seed invasions as ships visit ports across the global transportation network. Shipborne propagules also may be released in increasing numbers during extended vessel residence times at port or anchor. Thus, the large scale of shipping disruptions, impacting thousands of vessels and geographic locations and still on-going for over two years, may elevate invasion rates in coastal ecosystems in the absence of policy and management efforts to prevent this outcome. Concerted international and national biosecurity actions, mobilizing existing frameworks and tools with due diligence, are urgently needed to address a critical gap and abate the associated invasion risks.

Potential effects of LNG trade shift on transfer of ballast water and biota by ships.

As the US natural gas surplus grows, so does the prospect of establishing new trade partnerships with buyers abroad, a process that has major consequences for global ship movement and ballast water delivery. Since US annual imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) peaked in 2004-2007, the country is rapidly transitioning from net importer to net exporter of LNG. Combining multiple datasets, we estimated changes in the associated flux of ships' ballast water to the US during 2015-2040, using existing scenarios for projected exports of domestic LNG by ships. Our analysis of the current market (2015) scenario predicts an approximate 90-fold annual increase in LNG-related ballast water discharge to the US by 2040 (42millionm3), with the potential to be even greater under high oil prices. We also described changes in geographic connectivity related to trade direction. These findings highlight how 21st century global energy markets could dramatically alter opportunities for seaborne introductions and invasions by nonnative species.

Identifying the source of species invasions: sampling intensity vs. genetic diversity.

Population geneticists and community ecologists have long recognized the importance of sampling design for uncovering patterns of diversity within and among populations and in communities. Invasion ecologists increasingly have utilized phylogeographical patterns of mitochondrial or chloroplast DNA sequence variation to link introduced populations with putative source populations. However, many studies have ignored lessons from population genetics and community ecology and are vulnerable to sampling errors owing to insufficient field collections. A review of published invasion studies that utilized mitochondrial or chloroplast DNA markers reveals that insufficient sampling could strongly influence results and interpretations. Sixty per cent of studies sampled an average of less than six individuals per source population, vs. only 45% for introduced populations. Typically, far fewer introduced than source populations were surveyed, although they were sampled more intensively. Simulations based on published data forming a comprehensive mtDNA haplotype data set highlight and quantify the impact of the number of individuals surveyed per source population and number of putative source populations surveyed for accurate assignment of introduced individuals. Errors associated with sampling a low number of individuals are most acute when rare source haplotypes are dominant or fixed in the introduced population. Accuracy of assignment of introduced individuals is also directly related to the number of source populations surveyed and to the degree of genetic differentiation among them (F(ST)). Incorrect interpretations resulting from sampling errors can be avoided if sampling design is considered before field collections are made.